Monday, June 18, 2012

Flynn, Wilson and competing versions of reality

I have to confess that I believe that the Seahawks are not doing right by Matt Flynn by playing their “competition” game, and in the process inflating expectations of Russell Wilson (didn’t I mention T-Jack? Sorry-it must have slipped my mind). Part of it is the fact that many people perceive the Seahawk’s quarterback situation as “unsettled,” and that the candidates are not sufficiently differentiated to make the easy determination; however, this seems to be more a function of “doubts” about Flynn. I remember that when the NFL pregame analysts discussed whether the Packers had any chance of beating New England in that 2010 game, there was a brief mock seriousness before everyone starting laughing, predicting a slaughter. How could a “nobody” replace the quarterback (Aaron Rodgers), who is supposedly the best in the game, and even hope to put in an evenly mildly competitive performance against what was considered the best-coached team in the NFL?

After Flynn nearly led the Packers to a last-second victory against the Patriots before time ran out, there was shock and awe for a week or two before commentators settled down—until his record-breaking performance against Detroit put him back in the public consciousness. Yet there are those who continue to believe that Flynn’s performances were flukes, or denigrate his demonstrated qualities. Despite the fact that they haven’t seen the petite Wilson perform in the face of NFL-caliber opposition that doesn't plan on patting him on the back when they pass by, there are those who believe that his “potential” exceeds that of Flynn, without evidence to confirm this assertion. I haven’t seen him with a blitzing Detroit linebacker in his face and calmly tossing a ball over his head into the hands of the back-up running back (Ryan Grant, who was supposed to block him), who then completed an 80-yard touchdown play. I haven’t seen Wilson throw a perfect 40-yard pass on third down with a minute to play on an NFL field, leading to the game-winning TD pass. But I have seen Flynn do these things. Wilson may well be capable of overcoming his height limitations and performing as a quality starting quarterback, and as a Wisconsin fan it would not trouble me to see Wilson (even if he was a “hired-gun” who really wasn’t a true Badger) succeed at a high level. But he has to demonstrate that he is better than Flynn (who paid his dues for years behind the "best"--just as Rodgers did behind Brett Favre), and I believe the evidence doesn’t yet justify such a conclusion.

Some odds and ends: Mike Glennon, who replaced Wilson at NC State, actually had a better passer rating than Wilson did the year before, 136.4 to 127.5; In his junior season, Wilson, who averaged 40 pass attempts a game for 265 yards, was ranked 68th in the nation in passing efficiency. It also should be pointed out that the quarterback Wilson replaced at Wisconsin, Scott Tolzien, actually had the higher pass completion percentage the season before (72.9 to Wilson’s 72.8), and was ranked 6th in the nation in passing efficiency (Tolzien is currently on the 49ers’ roster, likely not for long). The Badgers also had a potent offense with Tolzien at quarterback, scoring 201 points in their final 3 Big Ten games. So it is a fair discussion to have to ask if Wilson would have been taken this seriously if we judged him by his NC State years. In fact there seemed to be a question in Wilson’s own mind if he had a future in the NFL; he played for the Colorado Rockies on a minor league baseball contract in 2010 and 2011. However, in 93 games he hit .229 with 5 home runs and 26 RBIs. It appears that Wilson thought that maybe he didn’t have a baseball career after all, and like the college grad who can only find security guard work, decided to go back to school and be a “somebody” again.

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